No one can predict with any greater accuracy than logic about the advent of the 3rd wave of the coronavirus pandemic in India. When will it strike, how lethal will the strike be, how long will it last etc. One thing is certain – that it will strike…
Why are we all – the scientists, the statisticians who do modelling, astrologers, the shopkeepers, etc. certain about the 3rd wave. The reasons for their inferences may be differ – for some it is data, for some science, for some statistics (probability), for some the astrological charts, while for some it is sheer logic. The prediction about the imminent arrival of 3rd Indian pandemic wave is based on logical to astrological reasonings.
Most predictions so far haven’t been accurate. Not going into the reasons why, I wish to propose my reasoning regarding the 3rd Indian pandemic wave. I begin with the premise that the 3rd wave is imminent. The next answer that people are waiting for is when. And finally, everyone wants to know is how severe will it be.
The prediction about the imminent arrival of 3rd Indian pandemic wave is based on logical to astrological reasonings.
Why is the 3rd wave in India imminent? No country has been spared of the 3rd wave so why will India be. Add to that our huge population, poverty where most people can’t even afford mask and the mask that they bought has become like a sieve. And we are not vaccinated enough. Yet, there are compulsions to reopen the economy. When restrictions are lifted, people move and with it moves the virus. The saving grace is immunity which I think the Indians have in plenty given the living standards; else the 2nd Indian pandemic wave would have been even more severe than what was witnessed.
The second answer that people are wanting to know is when will the 3rd wave hit India, not knowing that they themselves are responsible for it because of their laxity towards the virus. The 3rd wave begins 4 to 6 weeks after restrictions are lifted or even relaxed. It takes another 3 to 4 weeks to peak. It then plateaus (flattens) and stays at that for about 2 to 3 weeks. After the plateau begins the fall. The fall can be a steep one but in a large population and that too meagerly and partially vaccinated it takes up to 4 to 6 weeks to fall to the start-of-the-wave level. This is because the virus have plenty of unvaccinated people to feast upon. Hence, the 3rd wave will start around 10th September and end around 1st week of December 2021.
And finally, people are anxious to know if it will be as severe as the 2nd wave that hit India in April/May 2021. The logical explanation that I have to offer is that the 3rd wave will be as severe if not more because of multiple reasons which are beyond control – population being one of them, vaccination status in India (both partially and fully vaccinated stand at 10% and 36% respectively) is another, new variants that can pop up is always a possibility and last but not the least the behavior of public (currently the mask is on the chin, handwashing is namesake and social distancing is not practicable). All these make a perfect recipe for a rather unwanted and sufficiently severe 3rd wave of pandemic in India.
The mask is on the chin, handwashing is namesake and social distancing is not practicable. All these make a perfect recipe for a rather unwanted and sufficiently severe 3rd Indian pandemic wave.
Hope my prediction about the severity of the 3rd wave doesn’t turn out to be true. Just as most predictions were inaccurate, I want my prediction about the severity too to be inaccurate to save the misery it brings along with, both for individuals and the government.
